Tuesday, August 30, 2005
INFORMATION ON MY SELECTIONS
There is no racing at Del Mar today so I thought I would give you a little information about about my system.
Before I get started I would like to thank T.W. on his Woof Blister web blog for the kind recommendation. http://forkedtonguedweasels.blogspot.com/ He said I was on fire. Well yesterday they threw a bucket of water on the fire. Three races were were won by 1st time starters which I can not rate with my system. All 1st time starters must be considered in every race. I do rate them in order on how I think they will finish. My top selections produced one winner (2nd race- 5.00) and four 3rd place finishes.(races -1,3,4,5,) I wish I had a 5 race show parlay on those.
My system does not use computer generated selections. All selections are made with an ordinary home calculator and ink pen. I use the assigned weight of the jockey(better horses are assigned more weight), the horses best two speed ratings of his last 3 races (how fast he ran for the conditions). I use the last three places the horse finished in his races( was he placed at the right level by the trainer). I adjust ratings for turf to dirt and dirt to turf(most horses run faster on the turf). I also make an adjustment for the distance of the race. I have a mathmatical formula I created over a 5 year period over 25 years ago. The final number that I list after each selection has taken in all these factors. A horse should have had 3 races for the figure to be completely accurate. I do list a figure if a horse has run only 1 race but he may not repeat the effort the same way. A difference of 5 points on the top selection from the 2nd selection should be a good bet. Any horses within 5 points have a good chance of beating him to the finish.
We all know that the best horse does not always win. Stumbles, clipped heels, no racing room and boxed in on the rail and most of all Jockeys dumb decisions account for most horses problems. Yesterday was one of those days.
We will post the selections for Wed. Del Mar card as soon as we can get the figures done.
MAY THE BEST HORSE WIN.
Before I get started I would like to thank T.W. on his Woof Blister web blog for the kind recommendation. http://forkedtonguedweasels.blogspot.com/ He said I was on fire. Well yesterday they threw a bucket of water on the fire. Three races were were won by 1st time starters which I can not rate with my system. All 1st time starters must be considered in every race. I do rate them in order on how I think they will finish. My top selections produced one winner (2nd race- 5.00) and four 3rd place finishes.(races -1,3,4,5,) I wish I had a 5 race show parlay on those.
My system does not use computer generated selections. All selections are made with an ordinary home calculator and ink pen. I use the assigned weight of the jockey(better horses are assigned more weight), the horses best two speed ratings of his last 3 races (how fast he ran for the conditions). I use the last three places the horse finished in his races( was he placed at the right level by the trainer). I adjust ratings for turf to dirt and dirt to turf(most horses run faster on the turf). I also make an adjustment for the distance of the race. I have a mathmatical formula I created over a 5 year period over 25 years ago. The final number that I list after each selection has taken in all these factors. A horse should have had 3 races for the figure to be completely accurate. I do list a figure if a horse has run only 1 race but he may not repeat the effort the same way. A difference of 5 points on the top selection from the 2nd selection should be a good bet. Any horses within 5 points have a good chance of beating him to the finish.
We all know that the best horse does not always win. Stumbles, clipped heels, no racing room and boxed in on the rail and most of all Jockeys dumb decisions account for most horses problems. Yesterday was one of those days.
We will post the selections for Wed. Del Mar card as soon as we can get the figures done.
MAY THE BEST HORSE WIN.
