Saturday, August 02, 2014

 

DEL MAR - FREE HORSE RACING PICKS AND HANDICAPPING SELECTIONS FOR SATURDAY

REMEMBER - 1st time starters cannot be rated with my system. They must be considered. I will list the 1st timers in the order I believe they will finish.

ALWAYS REMEMBER - The 5 point difference between horses rule - Any horses that are rated within 5 points of each other has a good chance of beating each other on any given day. You should also consider a horse who is dropping or moving up in class. If drop is large enough he may be very competitive with the horses at this level. The same is true with a horse moving up in class. If the jump in class is too much he may have a difficult time being competitive with these horses.






NOTE: ALL TURF RACES HAVE BEEN MOVED TO THE POLY TRACK UNTIL AUG. 9TH. AFTER AUG. 9TH NO CLAIMING HORSES OR SPRINT RACES WILL BE ALLOWED ON THE TURF COURSE UNTIL FUTHER NOTICE.

RACE 1
6-PIMPERNEL 93.9
1-ANKENY HILL 90.1
2-ROYAL F J 82.5
3-SNOWDAY 79.5
4-SONGA 76.6

RACE 2
10-HALF DOME DUDE 90.0
1-MAVERICKS GUN 83.8
6-LOS BAMBINOS 80.2
5-MUCHO BESOS 79.0
11-GERMANY BAY 76.6

RACE 3
9-KNOW PLANS 91.3
8-PRIME ISSUE 86.3
1-IMAGE OF JOPLIN 85.6
2-DERAPTOR 78.8
6-DURANGO FLIER 77.2

RACE 4
6-LOUFOQUE 69.3 (off Oct. 13)
7-NIGHTTIMING 61.4
4-LETHAL STORY 59.6
3-TIZ A FUNTIME 55.5 (off Dec. 13)
1-CRAVIN' THE HEAT 51.1

RACE 5- (all 2 yo. going 5 1/2 f.)
1-DON'T BLAME ME 48.3

1st time starters - 2 thru 11 (NO SELECTIONS)

RACE 6
3-TIZ MIDNIGHT 95.2
4-SWEETRAYOFSUNSHINE 93.2
6-ROSIES READY 83.2
10-DOWNTOWN MY LADY 83.1
9-FRONT RANGE 82.0

RACE 7
6-FIGHTER SQUADRON 92.6
2-BENBA 85.7
5-SKIP TONY 85.0
4-CRUSHER 82.6
8-MR. CANDY BAR 73.7

RACE 8
2-IOTAPA 119.3
6-PARRANDA 97.8
3-BROKEN SWORD 97.1
1-FIFTYSHADESOFHAY 95.8
7-LEGACY 95.8

RACE 9
10-VEGAS STRIP 84.4
11-GOLD CHASER 77.2
2-CONSCIENCE 75.4
6-TURNOVER 74.9 (off slow)
12-PRONTEZZO 69.8

1st time starters - 3, 9, 8

RACE 10
11-FORMAT V. 79.6
8-DR WILLIAMS 78.4
3-BIG WAGS 72.6
1-GOD OF WAR 71.4
10-TUCKERS POINT 65.4
5-COOK INLET 62.2

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Friday, August 01, 2014

 

DEL MAR - FREE HORSE RACING PICKS AND HANDICAPPING SELECTIONS FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON

REMEMBER - 1st time starters cannot be rated with my system. They must be considered. I will list the 1st timers in the order I believe they will finish.

ALWAYS REMEMBER - The 5 point difference between horses rule - Any horses that are rated within 5 points of each other has a good chance of beating each other on any given day. You should also consider a horse who is dropping or moving up in class. If drop is large enough he may be very competitive with the horses at this level. The same is true with a horse moving up in class. If the jump in class is too much he may have a difficult time being competitive with these horses.







THE PICK SIX CARRYOVER FOR TODAY IS $239,003.


RACE 1
1-EXCLUSIVE GIRL 66.1
7-RYDERROO 64.8
3-BOW TIE BELLE 52.6
2-INA MINA 37.4
5-SHE'S A GIVEN 35.4 (awkward start)

1st time starters - 4

RACE 2
3-VOLKONSKY 80.2
5-WONDERFUL UNION 80.2
4-EXCLUDE 72.6
1-LUCKBOX SAM 72.5
2-GO BLACK TIE 69.8

RACE 3
8-SUPERBOOT 66.4
4-STORM THE HEAVENS 57.0
3-MONEY MAKIN SAM 56.5 (off Dec. 12)
6-TRIBAL MYSTERY MAN 55.5
10-FOREST ROMANCE 49.2

1st time starters - 1, 9, 2

RACE 4 (all 2 yo. going 5 1/2 f.)
3-PULMARACK 40.3 (off slow)
6-GOYO 27.2 (off slow)

1st time starters - 2, 5, 1, 7, 9, 8, 10, 4

RACE 5
1-WEST RULER 78.9 (off Oct. 12)
9-GLORIOUS REBECCA 60.1
3-SMIL'N FROM ABOVE 53.0
5-CHIPPETTE 50.6
8-PURSUITOFPARADISE 49.2

RACE 6
6-WINNINGINFASHION 82.2
8-HIGHLY RATED 82.0
1-MARKET QUOTE 74.9
5-JADE WITH ENVY 74.3
3-UNUSUAL STYLE 74.3

RACE 7
11-ALERT BAY 90.7
6-WHINE FOR WINE 86.3
13-G. G. RYDER 85.7
10-PATRIOTS RULE 83.1
7-RED OUTLAW 82.5

RACE 8
2-UNCLE LUCK 64.8
11-JIMMY'S DATE 54.0
9-SALT POWER 51.1
8-JUSTA SPLASH 46.4
7-WARRENSBROTHERBILL 46.0
6-BERLUSCONI 44.6

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Thursday, July 31, 2014

 

DEL MAR - FREE HORSE RACING PICKS AND HANDICAPPING SELECTIONS FOR THURSDAY

REMEMBER - 1st time starters cannot be rated with my system. They must be considered. I will list the 1st timers in the order I believe they will finish.

ALWAYS REMEMBER - The 5 point difference between horses rule - Any horses that are rated within 5 points of each other has a good chance of beating each other on any given day. You should also consider a horse who is dropping or moving up in class. If drop is large enough he may be very competitive with the horses at this level. The same is true with a horse moving up in class. If the jump in class is too much he may have a difficult time being competitive with these horses.



NOTE: NO FREEPICKS OR HANDICAPPING SELECTIONS TODAY. PICKS AND SELECTIONS WILL BE BACK UP FRIDAY.

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Wednesday, July 30, 2014

 
REMEMBER - 1st time starters cannot be rated with my system. They must be considered. I will list the 1st timers in the order I believe they will finish.

ALWAYS REMEMBER - The 5 point difference between horses rule - Any horses that are rated within 5 points of each other has a good chance of beating each other on any given day. You should also consider a horse who is dropping or moving up in class. If drop is large enough he may be very competitive with the horses at this level. The same is true with a horse moving up in class. If the jump in class is too much he may have a difficult time being competitive with these horses.







RACE 1
7-BIG JOHN B 98.4
4-TIGAH 93.9
3-AMERICAN ACT 86.9
5-STONEY FLEECE 86.3
2-THIRTYFIRSTSTREET 81.0 (off May 13)

RACE 2
6-LIVE FOR NOW 85.6
5-ICONIC SPIRIT 77.8
3-CAPRAIA 62.7 (off slow)
4-SOUTHERN SUNSHINE 61.4
8-REVEERCHON 52.6

1st time starters - 1

RACE 3
9-ROMAR SUCCESS 91.3
6-MAXX THE GIANT 82.6
4-NUMBER FIVE 78.4
5-WARRENS CLIFF S. 76.0
1-HARNESS MENTALITY 70.3

RACE 4
4-ROCKED TWICE 78.4
2-PUPPY MANNERS 72.0
5-CRUX 68.1
6-RED N BLACK ATTACK 67.5
3-TOSHEEN 58.5

RACE 5
5-SHEZA DISH 68.6
12-LAMAZONE 62.0
1-L X SUNRISE 57.2
2-ANN'S GOLD 56.5
7-UP THE ALLEY 56.0
11-YUR TEASING ME 56.0

RACE 6 (all 2 yo. going 1 mile on turf)
2-SEVE'S ROAD 47.8 (3 wide)
5-P CLUB 45.1
4-NAKAMOTO 35.4 (broke in)
8-VISITATION 14.5 (off slow)

1st time starters - 10, 9, 6, 3, 1, 11

RACE 7 (all 2 yo. going 5 1/2 f.)
7-WAKE UP NICK 82.0
6-PERADVENTURE 78.4
1-ATTA' BOY WOODY 64.8
3-LONDON LEGACY 60.1
2-COLORADO STRONG 58.5

RACE 8
6-RON'S BOY 55.5
1-ELEVEN ZIP 52.1
8-TRIUNFO 51.1
5-COYOTERO 50.6
10-NO BACHI 47.4
13-STORM THE HEAVENS 44.6

1st time starters - 3, 2

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Tuesday, July 29, 2014

 

DEL MAR - SOME INFORMATION ON MY SYSTEM

THERE IS NO RACING AT DEL MAR TODAY.

Here is some information about my system for the new people.

My system does not use computer generated selections.
All selections are made with an ordinary home calculator and ink pen.

I use the assigned weight of the jockey (better horses are assigned more weight), the horses best two speed ratings of his last 3 races (how fast he ran for the conditions). I use the last three places the horse finished in his races (was he placed at the right level by the trainer).

I adjust ratings for turf to dirt and dirt to turf (most horses run faster on the turf). I also make an adjustment for the distance of the race.

I have a mathmatical formula I created over a 5 year period over 35 years ago. The final number that I list after each selection has taken in all these factors.

A horse should have 3 races for the figure to be completely accurate. I do list a figure if a horse has run only 1 or 2 races but he may not repeat the effort the same way. A difference of 5 points on the top selection from the 2nd selection should be a good bet. Any horses within 5 points have a good chance of beating him to the finish.

The 5 point difference between horses rule- Any horse that is rated within 5 points of each other has a good chance of beating each other on any given day. You should also consider a horse who is dropping or moving up in class. If drop is large enough he may be very competitive with the horses at this level. The same is true with a horse moving up in class. If the jump in class is too much he may have a difficult time being competitive with these horses.

REMEMBER-1st time starters cannot be rated with my system. They must be considered. I will list the 1st timers in the order I believe they will finish. We all know the best horse does not always win.

Stumbles, clipped heels, no racing room, boxed in on the rail and most of all Jockey's dumb decisions account for most horses problems.

I hope this helps our new handicappers understand the system better and how the selections are made. Watch the point differences between the selections and then make your decision on how to bet the race.

HOW YOU BET THE PICKS IS THE KEY.

I wish you the most important factor of all -
GOOD LUCK.

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Monday, July 28, 2014

 

DEL MAR - SOME QUESTIONS ANSWERED

THERE IS NO RACING AT DEL MAR TODAY

Some questions answered-

I have been asked to make a pick six selection for the races. A pick six can be made by using my selections and 1st timers that are listed. I list the 1st timers in the order I believe they will finish.

Why do I post 5 horses for each race?
I post 5 horses with their ratings for each race as my figures are made and usually posted before scratches. If one is scratched you would still have 4 selections for superfectas. I also like to play superfectas and trifectas with my system and to box the different horses or key the top horses to the others.

Recap payouts -
I no longer list the payouts on the minimum bet such as a $1 trifecta, $2 Quinella, $1 Exacta, $1 Superfecta, etc. as given by the track results. This allows me to post the next days picks and selections earlier. After 3 years of listing the results my record speaks for itself (see archives).

I have a small advantage betting here in Reno on Quinellas at some of the racebooks as they offer a "house Q"- this is 1/2 the win price times the place horses price. They pay either the track payout or the "house Q" payout and I receive the highest of the two. When I show a top horse "keyed" in the payouts he could also have been "boxed" with the picks in your betting.

Are my listed horses in the order that they should be bet?
N0- I have pointed out the 5 point difference rule many many times ( see yesterday's post). Also the 1st time starters cannot be rated under my system and they must always be considered. I do try to list the 1st time starters in the order I believe they will finish. If there are a couple of high rated horses and then a gap between the next horse's figure I would usually include the 1st timer. If his works are very good I would also include him. If my rated horses numbers are below 60 points I would also include the first timer in my bets.

Do I make money all the time? I make money over a longer period of time but I have streaks just like every bettor does. I have a very good day for me with the trifectas. The next racing day???? I post my picks with the ratings. HOW YOU BET THE PICKS IS THE KEY.

My top horse wins alot but many of the payouts are small. If the 5 point rule is there I may bet the 2nd or 3rd horse to win. I only make win bets (no place or show) unless the odds are very high on my selection, then I may make a place bet. I never make a show bet to make money. I like to key my horses that stand out with their ratings and or box 3 or 4 horses for my trifectas and superfectas. If I make a quinella bet I usually box three horses unless I have a standout to key and then I key that horse to three others.

Horses with the same rating number-
I list the horse that I believe has the best chance of beating the other horse with the same figure first. This is for listing purposes only. Horses within a few tenths of a point are considered "tied" for betting purposes.

Program number does not match horse's name-
This has happened 15 times that I know of in over 2,965 posts on my blog. If it occurs use the program number and the rating for that horse. I enter the program numbers with the ratings first and then the horses name. I do not ever remember having the program number wrong for the selection I wanted with the horse's rating.

I hope this has answered some of the questions that you have about my system. I post information on the system on non racing days at the Southern Calif. tracks. You can go back on my posts on those days for more information.

The best handicapping tool you can have?
Good Luck

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Sunday, July 27, 2014

 

DEL MAR - FREE HORSE RACING PICKS AND HANDICAPPING SELECTIONS FOR SUNDAY

REMEMBER - 1st time starters cannot be rated with my system. They must be considered. I will list the 1st timers in the order I believe they will finish.

ALWAYS REMEMBER - The 5 point difference between horses rule - Any horses that are rated within 5 points of each other has a good chance of beating each other on any given day. You should also consider a horse who is dropping or moving up in class. If drop is large enough he may be very competitive with the horses at this level. The same is true with a horse moving up in class. If the jump in class is too much he may have a difficult time being competitive with these horses.






NOTE: DUE TO THE HIGH NUMBER OF ACCIDENTS ON THE NEW TURF COURSE ALL TURF RACES HAVE BEEN TAKEN OFF THE TURF COURSE TODAY.


RACE 1
11-TRIBALIST 69.1
9-BADASMYWIFELETSMEB 61.1
1-STEPPINGOOD 55.0 (off Dec. 13)
8-SICILIAN SALUTE 47.8 (off slow)
12-FORT CADY 34.5 (off slow)

1st time starters - 3, 2, 10, 6, 7, 5, 4

RACE 2 (all 2 yo. going 5 f.)
9-SOUL FLYER 46.4
2-PRINCESS BERTRANDO 44.2
1-DESERT STEEL 42.4
7-TAKE IT EASYPLEASE 37.8 (off slow)

1st time starters - 3, 4, 5, 8, 6

RACE 3
3-FRIENDLY BANTER 83.1
7-TENKILLER KID 81.4
2-WELCOME HOME RYAN 72.0
9-USBEK THUNDER 69.2
6-WOODSMANS LUCK 67.6
5-MALIBU WAY 67.5

RACE 4
7-CHATI'S ON TOP 80.6
3-PASSIONVILLE 75.4
6-SUNSET SKIES 74.4
2-I'M NO PATSY 74.3
1-TIZ A KISS 74.0

RACE 5
12-ETHNIC DANCE 99.1
10-MEGA HEAT 97.1
1-ROCK ME BABY 96.5
3-SOI PHET 95.8
8-UNUSUAL HEATWAVE 94.5

RACE 6
12-NOTHING BUT AIR 62.2
7-TIM'S GO GIRL 60.6
3-BETTY BING BING 60.1
9-PUTTYBADSHARK 59.0
14-LEONA PEGASUS 58.5

RACE 7 (all 2 yo. going 6f.)
1-STARLET O'HARA 56.0 (off slow)
7-MIDNIGHT CANDY 54.0
9-MAKE THE SUN SHINE 50.2
5-MORNING COFFEE 44.6
10-MISS MANDATE 34.2

1st time starters - 4, 6, 3, 2, 8

RACE 8
2-GOLDENCENTS 123.0
3-DECLASSIFY 112.2
6-BIG MACHER 111.4
5-SEEKING THE SHERIF 111.4
1-INDEXICAL 91.9

RACE 9
4-PERSONAL DIARY 86.9
2-SISTAS STROLL 86.9
12-KOOL KAT 80.8
5-DISREGARDED 80.2
9-KUKALUKA 79.6

RACE 10
11-Q'VIVA 69.8
14-EXCLUSIVE GIRL 68.6
13-RYDERROO 63.8
3-RUNNINGWITHTHELUTE 57.5
6-PRIVATE MARINA 54.5
7-DESERT MADAM 54.5

1st time starters - 4, 10, 12



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Saturday, July 26, 2014

 

DEL MAR - FREE HORSE RACING PICKS AND HANDICAPPING SELECTIONS FOR SATURDAY

REMEMBER - 1st time starters cannot be rated with my system. They must be considered. I will list the 1st timers in the order I believe they will finish.

ALWAYS REMEMBER - The 5 point difference between horses rule - Any horses that are rated within 5 points of each other has a good chance of beating each other on any given day. You should also consider a horse who is dropping or moving up in class. If drop is large enough he may be very competitive with the horses at this level. The same is true with a horse moving up in class. If the jump in class is too much he may have a difficult time being competitive with these horses.







THE PICK SIX CARRYOVER FOR TODAY IS $77,661.

RACE 1
4-OFF THE DEEP END 91.9
7-MAGNA WARRIOR 85.6
6-PRESIDING JUSTICE 85.0
1-GRAND HUMOR 82.6
2-SIDEPOCKET CHAMP 65.9

RACE 2
10-INCLINE VILLAGE 94.5
4-CHERUBIM 93.2
5-BETTYS BAMBINO 92.6
12-REMIND MEE 91.3
13-DERRINGER 90.0

RACE 3 (all 2 yo. going 5f.)
4-TATUM'S GOLD 49.2
7-SWEET MZ. POPPET 42.0
3-TIME FOR ACTION 10.5 (off slow)

1st time starters - 2, 6, 5, 9, 8, 10

RACE 4
2-SUNDAY RULES 96.5
4-ROVENNA 93.9
8-GO WEST MARIE 85.6
3-BONUS SPIN 83.8
7-WONDERFUL LIE 72.6

RACE 5
2-BARUTA 86.3
12-ANOTHER SKY 84.4
6-WINNING RHYTHM 83.2
1-ZANBO 82.5
8-TOPPERS SUNSHINE 80.8
13-LIL SWISS ECHO 80.8

RACE 6 (all 2 yo. going 6f.)
4-HOMER MATT 69.2 (3 wide)
1-TEXAS RED 48.3 (hopped at start)
5-RED BUTTON 44.6 (off slow)

1st time starters - 7, 3, 9, 6, 8, 2, 11

RACE 7
2-BIG CAZANOVA 107.3
9-R S WATSON 97.1
3-SEEKING THE WEST 95.8
8-TOLEDO EDDIE 94.5
7-BIG TIRE 88.1

RACE 8
2-IMPERATIVE 107.3
3-FRAC DADDY 101.1
7-HONDURAN 99.8
8-SUMMER HIT 98.4
9-HANDSOME MIKE 97.8

RACE 9
1-NOWALKING 90.6 (off slow, 3 wide)
12-GRACHUS THE HUNTER 77.8
11-BAYVIEW DRIVE 75.4
14-SPRING ACTION 74.3
2-YES YES YES 68.1

1st time starters - 13

RACE 10
8-MALIBU COLONY 85.6
14-PRESSURE TIME 83.1
3-THE TOM SQUAD 76.6
9-DEHERE IS GONE 76.0
6-COPPER BAY 70.8
10-CLUBHOUSE ROCK 70.3

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