Thursday, January 29, 2015

 

SANTA ANITA - FREE HORSE RACING PICKS AND HANDICAPPING SELECTIONS FOR THURSDAY

REMEMBER - 1st time starters cannot be rated with my system. They must be considered. I will list the 1st timers in the order I believe they will finish.

ALWAYS REMEMBER - The 5 point difference between horses rule - Any horses that are rated within 5 points of each other has a good chance of beating each other on any given day. You should also consider a horse who is dropping or moving up in class. If drop is large enough he may be very competitive with the horses at this level. The same is true with a horse moving up in class. If the jump in class is too much he may have a difficult time being competitive with these horses.







RACE 1
2-BAD JU JU 84.4
5-EASTER FEVER 67.5
3-EXFANOFSIXTIES 57.5
1-RACING FOR CHASEN 56.0
4-BULLWINKLE BABE 52.6

RACE 2
4-WHISKEY WILD 66.4
6-CONGRATS SEATTLE 61.1
2-FABBER 51.6
8-FORTYATE HI POINTS 42.0
5-CHUCK'S CHUCKLE 29.7

1st time starters - 7

RACE 3
2-RATTATAPTAP 89.4
1-ALL STAR BUB 72.0
6-HENNYTHELOVEPENNY 67.0
5-TALL AND SWEET 64.8 (bumped at break)
3-MORNING COFFEE 62.7

RACE 4
9-SPRING ACTION 73.7
1-BEACH FEVER 70.3
6-SET THE BIGBOYSFREE 62.5
5-CRANE LODGE 61.6
3-COULDASHOULDADID 60.1

1st time starters - 4

RACE 5
2-SEE THROUGH 74.3
12-LOUFOQUE 73.1
10-TAYLOR LANE 68.6
5-OUR CANDY CHARMS 61.1
1-QUEEN'S BALLADIER 57.6 (5 wide)

1st time starters - 9

RACE 6
7-JUNIPER PASS 91.3 (off Feb. 13)
1-WHEN WE MET 80.2
2-DRESS CODE 76.0
6-RELENTLESS HEAT 71.4
3-NORTH PACIFIC 63.8

RACE 7
9-I'LL WRAP IT UP 88.8
13-BABY BLAKE 83.8
6-WARREN'S NICHOLAS 82.6
7-SILVER TORCH 77.8
11-BADASMYWIFELETSMEB 77.2

RACE 8
6-STARZILLA 77.8
9-SILENT RULER 69.8
5-ARCTIC CODE 54.6
7-DEEP DIGGER 54.0
2-DENCH 54.0
10-MAJESTIC CHARLIE 50.2

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Wednesday, January 28, 2015

 

SANTA ANITA - SOME INFORMATION ON MY SYSTEM

THERE IS NO RACING AT SANTA ANITA TODAY.

Here is some information about my system for the new people.

My system does not use computer generated selections.
All selections are made with an ordinary home calculator and ink pen.

I use the assigned weight of the jockey (better horses are assigned more weight), the horses best two speed ratings of his last 3 races (how fast he ran for the conditions). I use the last three places the horse finished in his races (was he placed at the right level by the trainer).

I adjust ratings for turf to dirt and dirt to turf (most horses run faster on the turf). I also make an adjustment for the distance of the race.

I have a mathmatical formula I created over a 5 year period over 35 years ago. The final number that I list after each selection has taken in all these factors.

A horse should have 3 races for the figure to be completely accurate. I do list a figure if a horse has run only 1 or 2 races but he may not repeat the effort the same way. A difference of 5 points on the top selection from the 2nd selection should be a good bet. Any horses within 5 points have a good chance of beating him to the finish.

The 5 point difference between horses rule- Any horse that is rated within 5 points of each other has a good chance of beating each other on any given day. You should also consider a horse who is dropping or moving up in class. If drop is large enough he may be very competitive with the horses at this level. The same is true with a horse moving up in class. If the jump in class is too much he may have a difficult time being competitive with these horses.

REMEMBER-1st time starters cannot be rated with my system. They must be considered. I will list the 1st timers in the order I believe they will finish. We all know the best horse does not always win.

Stumbles, clipped heels, no racing room, boxed in on the rail and most of all Jockey's dumb decisions account for most horses problems.

I hope this helps our new handicappers understand the system better and how the selections are made. Watch the point differences between the selections and then make your decision on how to bet the race.

HOW YOU BET THE PICKS IS THE KEY.

I wish you the most important factor of all -
GOOD LUCK

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Tuesday, January 27, 2015

 

SANTA ANITA - SOME QUESTIONS ANSWERED

THERE IS NO RACING AT SANTA ANITA TODAY

Some questions answered-

I have been asked to make a pick six selection for the races. A pick six can be made by using my selections and 1st timers that are listed. I list the 1st timers in the order I believe they will finish.

Why do I post 5 horses for each race?
I post 5 horses with their ratings for each race as my figures are made and usually posted before scratches. If one is scratched you would still have 4 selections for superfectas. I also like to play superfectas and trifectas with my system and to box the different horses or key the top horses to the others.

Recap payouts -
I no longer list the payouts on the minimum bet such as a $1 trifecta, $2 Quinella, $1 Exacta, $1 Superfecta, etc. as given by the track results. This allows me to post the next days picks and selections earlier. After 3 years of listing the results my record speaks for itself (see archives).

I have a small advantage betting here in Reno on Quinellas at some of the racebooks as they offer a "house Q"- this is 1/2 the win price times the place horses price. They pay either the track payout or the "house Q" payout and I receive the highest of the two. When I show a top horse "keyed" in the payouts he could also have been "boxed" with the picks in your betting.

Are my listed horses in the order that they should be bet?
N0- I have pointed out the 5 point difference rule many many times ( see yesterday's post). Also the 1st time starters cannot be rated under my system and they must always be considered. I do try to list the 1st time starters in the order I believe they will finish. If there are a couple of high rated horses and then a gap between the next horse's figure I would usually include the 1st timer. If his works are very good I would also include him. If my rated horses numbers are below 60 points I would also include the first timer in my bets.

Do I make money all the time? I make money over a longer period of time but I have streaks just like every bettor does. I have a very good day for me with the trifectas. The next racing day???? I post my picks with the ratings. HOW YOU BET THE PICKS IS THE KEY.

My top horse wins alot but many of the payouts are small. If the 5 point rule is there I may bet the 2nd or 3rd horse to win. I only make win bets (no place or show) unless the odds are very high on my selection, then I may make a place bet. I never make a show bet to make money. I like to key my horses that stand out with their ratings and or box 3 or 4 horses for my trifectas and superfectas. If I make a quinella bet I usually box three horses unless I have a standout to key and then I key that horse to three others.

Horses with the same rating number-
I list the horse that I believe has the best chance of beating the other horse with the same figure first. This is for listing purposes only. Horses within a few tenths of a point are considered "tied" for betting purposes.

Program number does not match horse's name-
This has happened 15 times that I know of in over 3,112 posts on my blog. If it occurs use the program number and the rating for that horse. I enter the program numbers with the ratings first and then the horses name. I do not ever remember having the program number wrong for the selection I wanted with the horse's rating.

I hope this has answered some of the questions that you have about my system. I post information on the system on non racing days at the Southern Calif. tracks. You can go back on my posts on those days for more information.

The best handicapping tool you can have?
Good Luck

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Sunday, January 25, 2015

 

SANTA ANITA - FREE HORSE RACING PICKS AND HANDICAPPING SELECTIONS FOR SUNDAY

REMEMBER - 1st time starters cannot be rated with my system. They must be considered. I will list the 1st timers in the order I believe they will finish.

ALWAYS REMEMBER - The 5 point difference between horses rule - Any horses that are rated within 5 points of each other has a good chance of beating each other on any given day. You should also consider a horse who is dropping or moving up in class. If drop is large enough he may be very competitive with the horses at this level. The same is true with a horse moving up in class. If the jump in class is too much he may have a difficult time being competitive with these horses.








THE PICK SIX CARRYOVER FOR TODAY IS $116,493.

RACE 1
6-ROCKED TWICE 83.8
2-SUDDEN RUMOR 77.2
3-W. GILES 75.4
4-FRIENDSWITH K MILL 73.1
5-MOSSO 68.6
1-PAPA'S PAISLEY 68.6

RACE 2
4-OPSEC 85.1
1-ALAMO 84.0
2-TO THE BAR 76.6 (off slow)
7-NATIVE RIDE 76.6
5-WICKED FINANCE 76.6

1st time starters - 3

RACE 3
6-STREET SERENADE 77.8
8-BROADWAY NIKA 76.6
1-DEEP PLAY 74.3
3-TIMELESS INDY 65.9
5-CARDIO ROYALE 63.8

RACE 4
3-NEW SUMMIT 85.0
7-THE MAN 83.2
2-WHY TWO 73.1 (off slow)
4-FORCE 71.4
9-IDEAL 69.2

1st time starters - 6, 8

RACE 5
6-AIR OF ROYALTY 86.9
1-SAYES SO 84.4
5-LUCKY STUDENT 82.6
7-COURAGEOUS CALL 76.0
4-MUM'S TRUCKEE 75.4

RACE 6
6-RATTATAPTAP 88.1
10-PRIZE EXHIBIT 86.3
3-AMERICAN SUN 76.6
5-MIDNIGHT CANDY 68.6
1-JADED GLORY 67.5

RACE 7
8-EL VAGURO 86.9
13-APERFECTDAYTOFLY 66.4
12-KOZANI 62.2
10-LOLO EL CANONERO 60.6
6-BALLARD RULER 58.5

RACE 8
5-SWEET SWAP 101.8
1-LIL BIT O'FUN 101.8
9-FOREVER JUANITO 100.4
8-HAY DUDE 99.8
4-MR. COMMONS 98.4

RACE 9
10-RARE PUNCH 70.9
14-MILITANT 63.2
8-NEVADA TIME 61.1
7-SURFER MOON 57.5
12-ROSE WARRIOR 54.0
4-EXPONENTIALLY 53.0

1st time starters - 3

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Saturday, January 24, 2015

 

SANTA ANITA - FREE HORSE RACING PICKS AND HANDICAPPING SELECTIONS FOR SATURDAY

REMEMBER - 1st time starters cannot be rated with my system. They must be considered. I will list the 1st timers in the order I believe they will finish.

ALWAYS REMEMBER - The 5 point difference between horses rule - Any horses that are rated within 5 points of each other has a good chance of beating each other on any given day. You should also consider a horse who is dropping or moving up in class. If drop is large enough he may be very competitive with the horses at this level. The same is true with a horse moving up in class. If the jump in class is too much he may have a difficult time being competitive with these horses.








RACE 1
8-HOWDY 70.9
7-GRAZEN SKY 68.6
6-SIGNATURE CAT 31.5

1st time starters - 5, 4, 1, 3, 2, 9

RACE 2
3-THIS TIME I WIN 74.9 (4 wide)
1-PROHIBITION REPEAL 65.4 (off slow)
6-AJAC 63.2 (off Oct. 13)
2-SEEDSANDSTEMSAGAIN 62.7
7-RHAY'S SHADOW 57.5

1st time starters - 4, 5, 8

RACE 3
5-FOREST CHATTER 92.6
3-EL TOVAR 90.7
2-LINDATE 85.0
11-DO SOME MAJIC 82.0
1-HOT MARKET 80.3

RACE 4
7-UPBEAT TEMPO 57.0
5-CHIEF OF STAFF 56.0 (3 wide)
4-MOMMA TRIED 45.5
3-STORMIN TRICK 22.2 (off slow)

1st time starters - 1, 2, 6, 8, 9

RACE 5
5-SHEER PLEASURE 70.9 (3 wide)
4-HEAT THE ROCKS 69.8
6-LIGHT ONE 69.2
2-SINGING KITTY 60.0
7-TRIBAL EXPRESS 54.7

RACE 6
2-ACCEPTANCE 89.4
1-TOUGH SUNDAY 81.9
5-KLUSZEWSKI 73.1
3-MISCHIEF CLEM 69.8
7-PULMARACK 65.9

RACE 7
4-VELVET MESQUITE 98.4
14-HEAT TRAP 97.8
6-HEAVENS STAIRWAY 94.5
1-MORE COMPLEXITY 92.6
7-GO WEST MARIE 88.8

RACE 8
2-SAN ONOFRE 108.6
7-MARINO'S WILD CAT 105.2
3-ROUSING SERMON 102.5
5-GRAZEN'S HOPE 93.2
6-FOLLINI 90.0

RACE 9
3-ALERT BAY 103.1
2-G. G. RYDER 99.6
7-AWESOME RETURN 96.5
5-BIG BANE THEORY 93.9
6-BENCH LIGHT 92.6

RACE 10
11-POWERFUL GIRL 54.0
5-LADY DANGER 44.6
10-ILL TELL YOU WHAT 43.3
6-SHE GOT AWAY 42.4
8-VEGAS LUCK 38.6


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Friday, January 23, 2015

 

SANTA ANITA - FREE HORSE RACING PICKS AND HANDICAPPING SELECTIONS FOR FRIDAY

REMEMBER - 1st time starters cannot be rated with my system. They must be considered. I will list the 1st timers in the order I believe they will finish.

ALWAYS REMEMBER - The 5 point difference between horses rule - Any horses that are rated within 5 points of each other has a good chance of beating each other on any given day. You should also consider a horse who is dropping or moving up in class. If drop is large enough he may be very competitive with the horses at this level. The same is true with a horse moving up in class. If the jump in class is too much he may have a difficult time being competitive with these horses.




NOTE: AFTER 2 1/2 WEEKS OF BEING ILL I AM BACK WITH MY PICKS AND SELECTIONS. I WOULD LIKE TO THANK THOSE WHO SHOWED CONCERN AND FOR THE NICE COMMENTS.

RACE 1
2-LYLA DELLA 60.1
3-HOT AND PLEASING 48.3
6-SHE'S DISCREET 47.8
9-BERNIER 46.4
4-NARURE'S ALLEY 39.4 (off slow)

RACE 2
6-CONQUEST SUPERSTEP 67.5
1-PURE 61.1
5-ELLE SUENO 46.0
3-IS THIS GEORGIA 39.9
2-ROADBUG 33.8 (4 wide)

1st time starters - 4

RACE 3
8-VERRACO 79.9
5-WILLING TO TRAVEL 68.6
3-AFLEET IN TIME 62.6
1-ERNEST SHACKLETON 60.6 (4 wide)
4-DYNAMITE RIDE 57.0

RACE 4
2-GRAMMY TIMES SIX 72.5
8-GOODHUMORGIRL 70.3
5-PAPA'S TANGO L R 69.2
6-SHE'S FLUSH 64.8
4-SWISSARELLA 61.1

RACE 5
2-GRANDIOSE TACTICS 79.6
4-DISSENSION 77.4
3-MAJESTIC MINISTER 76.4
9-CAMRYN KATE 74.3
1-HUGH KNEW 73.7

RACE 6
5-GNARLY HARLY 64.3
8-CHESTER B 58.5
9-STERLING WAGER 55.6
6-GUYFROMTHESKYFIVE 52.5
2-RESERVOIR POINT 48.8 (bumped)

RACE 7
2-LAMAZONE 76.6
6-LADY'S PLAN 68.6
4-SORESCA 65.9
3-SHEZA EYEOPENER 65.4
8-BELONGING 65.4

RACE 8
6-PUSH GIRL 67.5
3-FABULOUS FIT 66.4 (off Dec. 12)
5-VEGAS BOUND 65.4
4-IRISH AND LUCKY 59.0
11-PERFECT TANGO 56.0
13-REAL BRIGHT BOOTS 49.2






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Thursday, January 22, 2015

 

SANTA ANITA - SOME INFORMATION ON MY SYSTEM

THERE IS NO RACING AT SANTA ANITA TODAY.

Here is some information about my system for the new people.

My system does not use computer generated selections.
All selections are made with an ordinary home calculator and ink pen.

I use the assigned weight of the jockey (better horses are assigned more weight), the horses best two speed ratings of his last 3 races (how fast he ran for the conditions). I use the last three places the horse finished in his races (was he placed at the right level by the trainer).

I adjust ratings for turf to dirt and dirt to turf (most horses run faster on the turf). I also make an adjustment for the distance of the race.

I have a mathmatical formula I created over a 5 year period over 35 years ago. The final number that I list after each selection has taken in all these factors.

A horse should have 3 races for the figure to be completely accurate. I do list a figure if a horse has run only 1 or 2 races but he may not repeat the effort the same way. A difference of 5 points on the top selection from the 2nd selection should be a good bet. Any horses within 5 points have a good chance of beating him to the finish.

The 5 point difference between horses rule- Any horse that is rated within 5 points of each other has a good chance of beating each other on any given day. You should also consider a horse who is dropping or moving up in class. If drop is large enough he may be very competitive with the horses at this level. The same is true with a horse moving up in class. If the jump in class is too much he may have a difficult time being competitive with these horses.

REMEMBER-1st time starters cannot be rated with my system. They must be considered. I will list the 1st timers in the order I believe they will finish. We all know the best horse does not always win.

Stumbles, clipped heels, no racing room, boxed in on the rail and most of all Jockey's dumb decisions account for most horses problems.

I hope this helps our new handicappers understand the system better and how the selections are made. Watch the point differences between the selections and then make your decision on how to bet the race.

HOW YOU BET THE PICKS IS THE KEY.

I wish you the most important factor of all -
GOOD LUCK

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Wednesday, January 21, 2015

 

SANTA ANITA - SOME QUESTIONS ANSWERED

THERE IS NO RACING AT SANTA ANITA TODAY

Some questions answered-

I have been asked to make a pick six selection for the races. A pick six can be made by using my selections and 1st timers that are listed. I list the 1st timers in the order I believe they will finish.

Why do I post 5 horses for each race?
I post 5 horses with their ratings for each race as my figures are made and usually posted before scratches. If one is scratched you would still have 4 selections for superfectas. I also like to play superfectas and trifectas with my system and to box the different horses or key the top horses to the others.

Recap payouts -
I no longer list the payouts on the minimum bet such as a $1 trifecta, $2 Quinella, $1 Exacta, $1 Superfecta, etc. as given by the track results. This allows me to post the next days picks and selections earlier. After 3 years of listing the results my record speaks for itself (see archives).

I have a small advantage betting here in Reno on Quinellas at some of the racebooks as they offer a "house Q"- this is 1/2 the win price times the place horses price. They pay either the track payout or the "house Q" payout and I receive the highest of the two. When I show a top horse "keyed" in the payouts he could also have been "boxed" with the picks in your betting.

Are my listed horses in the order that they should be bet?
N0- I have pointed out the 5 point difference rule many many times ( see yesterday's post). Also the 1st time starters cannot be rated under my system and they must always be considered. I do try to list the 1st time starters in the order I believe they will finish. If there are a couple of high rated horses and then a gap between the next horse's figure I would usually include the 1st timer. If his works are very good I would also include him. If my rated horses numbers are below 60 points I would also include the first timer in my bets.

Do I make money all the time? I make money over a longer period of time but I have streaks just like every bettor does. I have a very good day for me with the trifectas. The next racing day???? I post my picks with the ratings. HOW YOU BET THE PICKS IS THE KEY.

My top horse wins alot but many of the payouts are small. If the 5 point rule is there I may bet the 2nd or 3rd horse to win. I only make win bets (no place or show) unless the odds are very high on my selection, then I may make a place bet. I never make a show bet to make money. I like to key my horses that stand out with their ratings and or box 3 or 4 horses for my trifectas and superfectas. If I make a quinella bet I usually box three horses unless I have a standout to key and then I key that horse to three others.

Horses with the same rating number-
I list the horse that I believe has the best chance of beating the other horse with the same figure first. This is for listing purposes only. Horses within a few tenths of a point are considered "tied" for betting purposes.

Program number does not match horse's name-
This has happened 15 times that I know of in over 3,101 posts on my blog. If it occurs use the program number and the rating for that horse. I enter the program numbers with the ratings first and then the horses name. I do not ever remember having the program number wrong for the selection I wanted with the horse's rating.

I hope this has answered some of the questions that you have about my system. I post information on the system on non racing days at the Southern Calif. tracks. You can go back on my posts on those days for more information.

The best handicapping tool you can have?
Good Luck

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