Wednesday, August 20, 2014

 

DEL MAR - FREE HORSE RACING PICKS AND HANDICAPPING SELECTIONS FOR WEDNESDAY

REMEMBER - 1st time starters cannot be rated with my system. They must be considered. I will list the 1st timers in the order I believe they will finish.

ALWAYS REMEMBER - The 5 point difference between horses rule - Any horses that are rated within 5 points of each other has a good chance of beating each other on any given day. You should also consider a horse who is dropping or moving up in class. If drop is large enough he may be very competitive with the horses at this level. The same is true with a horse moving up in class. If the jump in class is too much he may have a difficult time being competitive with these horses.







RACE 1
3-WOEBEGON 84.4
2-RHODIUM 71.4
8-NUEVA FORTUNA 69.2
7-HALO LA 68.1
1-FIESTA EXPRESS 64.3

RACE 2 (all 2 yo. going 5 1/2 f.)
4-DR. VINCENTSTEIN 52.1
5-SOUTHEAST ASIA 46.9
9-BANDIDO TOO 43.3 (bobbled start)
6-OATKA LITTLE LOU 39.4

1st time starters - 1, 3, 7, 8

RACE 3
6-FAITH PROOF 79.6
3-EXCLUSIVE GIRL 70.9
1-SHE'S FLUSH 68.1
5-EDDIES CURL 66.4
7-HANNA NO SIR 64.3

RACE 4
8-LUCKY J LANE 78.4
2-SMART JOURNEY 78.4
7-LINDANTE 69.2
6-CHACO 66.4
9-SALT OF THE EARTH 49.7

1st time starters - 4

RACE 5
2-PASSIONVILLE 83.8
6-MELANISTIC 81.4
5-WINNINGINFASHION 79.6
1-CASEY'S CLEM 74.9
4-SHYSHEISNOT 66.4

RACE 6 (all 2 yo. going 1 mile)
7-BATTLE OF EVERMORE 57.7
1-HARMONIC 50.6 (steadied, 4 wide)
9-TEXAS RED 48.0
14-DREAM IT DO IT 44.7
2-SECRETO PRIMERO 41.0

1st time starters - 8, 10, 3, 6

RACE 7
5-DISREGARDED 83.2
4-KUKALUKA 80.2
13-BURNING ARCH 80.2
10-VANLOSE STAIRWAY 79.6
1-GUINEVERE'S FINALE 76.0
3-ALEXIS TANGIER 75.8

RACE 8
3-MADAME FORBES 54.5
5-VERONICA BAY 53.5
1-FULL OF SPICE 52.0
2-ITALIAN HARMONY 45.1
7-WILDLY EXCESSIVE 37.8
4-YODELMESOMEMAGIC 35.3

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Tuesday, August 19, 2014

 

DEL MAR - SOME INFORMATION ON MY SYSTEM

THERE IS NO RACING AT DEL MAR TODAY.

Here is some information about my system for the new people.

My system does not use computer generated selections.
All selections are made with an ordinary home calculator and ink pen.

I use the assigned weight of the jockey (better horses are assigned more weight), the horses best two speed ratings of his last 3 races (how fast he ran for the conditions). I use the last three places the horse finished in his races (was he placed at the right level by the trainer).

I adjust ratings for turf to dirt and dirt to turf (most horses run faster on the turf). I also make an adjustment for the distance of the race.

I have a mathmatical formula I created over a 5 year period over 35 years ago. The final number that I list after each selection has taken in all these factors.

A horse should have 3 races for the figure to be completely accurate. I do list a figure if a horse has run only 1 or 2 races but he may not repeat the effort the same way. A difference of 5 points on the top selection from the 2nd selection should be a good bet. Any horses within 5 points have a good chance of beating him to the finish.

The 5 point difference between horses rule- Any horse that is rated within 5 points of each other has a good chance of beating each other on any given day. You should also consider a horse who is dropping or moving up in class. If drop is large enough he may be very competitive with the horses at this level. The same is true with a horse moving up in class. If the jump in class is too much he may have a difficult time being competitive with these horses.

REMEMBER-1st time starters cannot be rated with my system. They must be considered. I will list the 1st timers in the order I believe they will finish. We all know the best horse does not always win.

Stumbles, clipped heels, no racing room, boxed in on the rail and most of all Jockey's dumb decisions account for most horses problems.

I hope this helps our new handicappers understand the system better and how the selections are made. Watch the point differences between the selections and then make your decision on how to bet the race.

HOW YOU BET THE PICKS IS THE KEY.

I wish you the most important factor of all -
GOOD LUCK.

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Monday, August 18, 2014

 

DEL MAR - SOME QUESTIONS ANSWERED

THERE IS NO RACING AT DEL MAR TODAY

Some questions answered-

I have been asked to make a pick six selection for the races. A pick six can be made by using my selections and 1st timers that are listed. I list the 1st timers in the order I believe they will finish.

Why do I post 5 horses for each race?
I post 5 horses with their ratings for each race as my figures are made and usually posted before scratches. If one is scratched you would still have 4 selections for superfectas. I also like to play superfectas and trifectas with my system and to box the different horses or key the top horses to the others.

Recap payouts -
I no longer list the payouts on the minimum bet such as a $1 trifecta, $2 Quinella, $1 Exacta, $1 Superfecta, etc. as given by the track results. This allows me to post the next days picks and selections earlier. After 3 years of listing the results my record speaks for itself (see archives).

I have a small advantage betting here in Reno on Quinellas at some of the racebooks as they offer a "house Q"- this is 1/2 the win price times the place horses price. They pay either the track payout or the "house Q" payout and I receive the highest of the two. When I show a top horse "keyed" in the payouts he could also have been "boxed" with the picks in your betting.

Are my listed horses in the order that they should be bet?
N0- I have pointed out the 5 point difference rule many many times ( see yesterday's post). Also the 1st time starters cannot be rated under my system and they must always be considered. I do try to list the 1st time starters in the order I believe they will finish. If there are a couple of high rated horses and then a gap between the next horse's figure I would usually include the 1st timer. If his works are very good I would also include him. If my rated horses numbers are below 60 points I would also include the first timer in my bets.

Do I make money all the time? I make money over a longer period of time but I have streaks just like every bettor does. I have a very good day for me with the trifectas. The next racing day???? I post my picks with the ratings. HOW YOU BET THE PICKS IS THE KEY.

My top horse wins alot but many of the payouts are small. If the 5 point rule is there I may bet the 2nd or 3rd horse to win. I only make win bets (no place or show) unless the odds are very high on my selection, then I may make a place bet. I never make a show bet to make money. I like to key my horses that stand out with their ratings and or box 3 or 4 horses for my trifectas and superfectas. If I make a quinella bet I usually box three horses unless I have a standout to key and then I key that horse to three others.

Horses with the same rating number-
I list the horse that I believe has the best chance of beating the other horse with the same figure first. This is for listing purposes only. Horses within a few tenths of a point are considered "tied" for betting purposes.

Program number does not match horse's name-
This has happened 15 times that I know of in over 2,985 posts on my blog. If it occurs use the program number and the rating for that horse. I enter the program numbers with the ratings first and then the horses name. I do not ever remember having the program number wrong for the selection I wanted with the horse's rating.

I hope this has answered some of the questions that you have about my system. I post information on the system on non racing days at the Southern Calif. tracks. You can go back on my posts on those days for more information.

The best handicapping tool you can have?
Good Luck

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Sunday, August 17, 2014

 

DEL MAR - FREE HORSE RACING PICKS AND HANDICAPPING SELECTIONS FOR SUNDAY

REMEMBER - 1st time starters cannot be rated with my system. They must be considered. I will list the 1st timers in the order I believe they will finish.

ALWAYS REMEMBER - The 5 point difference between horses rule - Any horses that are rated within 5 points of each other has a good chance of beating each other on any given day. You should also consider a horse who is dropping or moving up in class. If drop is large enough he may be very competitive with the horses at this level. The same is true with a horse moving up in class. If the jump in class is too much he may have a difficult time being competitive with these horses.







THE PICK SIX CARRYOVER FOR TODAY IS $106,845.

RACE 1
5-FIGHTING ON 84.4
6-CARAMURU 76.5
4-U S CITIZEN 72.0
2-RUM POINT 70.9
1-JIMMY'S DATE 68.6

RACE 2
3-COTTON VALLEY 65.9
4-JUSTA SPLASH 64.3
5-MONEY FAN 62.7
7-PLAY MAKER 58.5
2-CONCERT MAN 58.5

RACE 3
2-FOREST ELF 100.4
4-XUANG FENG 85.6
5-DIAMOND OF BLUE 82.6
3-ZIP CAT 80.2
6-MUCHOS BESOS 79.6

RACE 4
3-RENEESGOTZIP 118.6 (off Nov. 13)
1-JUDY THE BEAUTY 109.3
5-AMARANTH 88.1
6-MADAME CACTUS 88.1 (off Dec. 13)
4-SAGEBRUSH QUEEN 88.1

RACE 5
3-FULL DANCER 101.8
1-ETHNIC DANCE 98.4
9-MEGA HEAT 96.4
8-LAYTON REGISTER 89.4
6-SAWYER'S HILL 88.1

RACE 6 (all 2 yo. going 6f.)
8-NOBLE HAWK 49.7
4-ZINVOR 44.2
5-CARDIAC 33.8 (off slow)
10-WESTWARD 32.3
1-GUY CODE 21.3

1st time starters - 2, 3, 6, 9, 7

RACE 7 (all 2 yo. going 5 1/2 f.)
8-PARTYIN 61.6
11-ALL STAR BUB 60.1
7-MEGYANS GOLD 53.0 (4 wide)
2-LANIE BRITT 49.7
4-BACKSTREET LISA 47.4
3-COLLATERAL 41.1

1st time starters - 1, 6, 12, 10, 9, 13

RACE 8
3-KATHLEEN ROSE 98.4
10-SING AND TELL 97.1
7-WARREN'S VENEDA 91.9
4-HEAT DU JOUR 90.0
2-MAGIC SPOT 86.3
8-UNUSUAL HOTTIE 86.3

RACE 9
8-CRUSHER 86.9
7-TENKILLER KID 81.4
6-FORMAT V. 76.6
9-SO ELITE 76.6
10-PERSUASIVE PAUL 72.2

RACE 10
3-RYDERROO 65.9
4-DESERT MADAM 61.1
10-MOM'S WINNER 59.6
8-HOT AND PLEASING 56.6
7-PRIVATE MARINA 50.6
5-EMERALDS MISS 50.3

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Saturday, August 16, 2014

 

DEL MAR - FREE HORSE RACING PICKS AND HANDICAPPING SELECTIONS FOR SATURDAY

REMEMBER - 1st time starters cannot be rated with my system. They must be considered. I will list the 1st timers in the order I believe they will finish.

ALWAYS REMEMBER - The 5 point difference between horses rule - Any horses that are rated within 5 points of each other has a good chance of beating each other on any given day. You should also consider a horse who is dropping or moving up in class. If drop is large enough he may be very competitive with the horses at this level. The same is true with a horse moving up in class. If the jump in class is too much he may have a difficult time being competitive with these horses.







RACE 1
2-HE'S A BLING 71.4
5-TEST RIDE 69.8
6-VEGAS STRIP 69.2
1-COGNOSCENTE 64.3
3-MR. ITKINS 63.2

1st time starters - 4, 7

RACE 2
6-SISTAS STROLL 86.3
2-STARRY NIGHTS 85.0
7-REMARKABLE MOON 84.4
4-KADESHA 82.6
5-MARCYJANE 80.2

RACE 3
1-PRESIDING JUSTICE 85.6
2-SIDEPOCKET CHAMP 85.6
4-MAGNA WARRIOR 85.0
6-SECRET COMMAND 72.6
3-MACHO SOX 71.4

RACE 4
5-THIRTYFIRSTSTREET 84.4
6-RAUSCHENBERG 81.9
7-TRES BORRACHOS 80.8
2-RELENTLESS HEAT 69.3
3-TIMELESS INDY 62.7

RACE 5
2-ZIMMER 96.5
12-TIGAH 96.5
10-VALLEY CAT 94.5
6-PULPIT'S EXPRESS 90.7
11-SNAPS 90.0

RACE 6 (all 2 yo. going 5 1/2 f.)
8-KANTUNE 72.0 (3 wide)
7-DISCREET PRINCE 49.7
1-AMERICAN SAILOR 29.7 (3 wide)

1st time starters - 3, 4, 5, 2, 6

RACE 7
3-YARD LINE 105.9
5-SWEET SUNSHINE 95.8 (off Nov. 13)
2-SEEKING THE WEST 94.5
4-GOT EVEN 91.3
6-BIG TIRE 90.7

RACE 8
10-SEA QUEEN 97.8
3-ISTANFORD 91.9
2-FAMOUS ALICE 90.0
4-PERSONAL DIARY 89.4
5-STELLARIS 85.6

1st time starters - 8, 9 (in the U.S.A. - both fgn. horses)

RACE 9
12-LAKOTA ROAD 74.1
5-COCONUT CREAM PIE 70.9
8-BIRD IN LOVE 62.2
2-MOSCATO GIRL 61.6
3-HOLLYWOOD PRODUCER 59.0

RACE 10
13-MISDEED 71.0
6-ROYAL TALE 69.8
7-DICKERY DO 67.6
10-SILENT RULER 66.4
3-BAYVIEW DRIVE 65.9
5-IN EXCESSIVENESS 62.0

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Friday, August 15, 2014

 

DEL MAR - FREE HORSE RACING PICKS AND HANDICAPPING SELECTIONS FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON

REMEMBER - 1st time starters cannot be rated with my system. They must be considered. I will list the 1st timers in the order I believe they will finish.

ALWAYS REMEMBER - The 5 point difference between horses rule - Any horses that are rated within 5 points of each other has a good chance of beating each other on any given day. You should also consider a horse who is dropping or moving up in class. If drop is large enough he may be very competitive with the horses at this level. The same is true with a horse moving up in class. If the jump in class is too much he may have a difficult time being competitive with these horses.







RACE 1
3-KINGS ADVENTURE 72.0
2-ENLISTED MAN 66.4
4-SILVER TORCH 62.7
6-MONEY TREE 59.0
1-COOLINGTON 44.2 (off Nov. 13)

1st time starters - 7

RACE 2
10-L X SUNRISE 62.2
6-THEATRICAL CAST 47.8
1-TODAI SING 44.2
8-NEVER AGAIN 39.9
3-HERE COMES BOBBIE 33.4

RACE 3
8-FOREST MOUSE 95.8
9-SUPER ABILITY 93.2
5-RANGI 91.9
2-ARTEST 90.7
1-BOAT TRIP 89.4

RACE 4
11-FANNY BRICE 73.7
2-ONE MAGICAL GIRL 68.1
10-YA WANNA HUG 68.1
6-WARREN'S ASSASSIN 62.7
1-SIEMPRE ESPERANZA 61.1

RACE 5
4-AMERICAN PRIDE 105.9
1-MY SLEW 105.2
7-AIRFOIL 102.5
6-CUZAN 101.1
5-HOLY LUTE 94.5

RACE 6
8-INSTANFORD 97.8
2-SHEZA SMOKE SHOW 86.9
3-KOOL KAT 84.5
11-WONDERFULLY 82.0
1-AMNESIA 79.6

RACE 7
7-MINNALOUSHE 52.6
5-BEST IN CLASS 46.4 (off Aug. 13)
1-ALISSA R N 37.8 (4 wide)
4-SUNDAY STROLL 34.9
11-NATAL 33.0

1st time starters - 10, 2, 8

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Thursday, August 14, 2014

 

DEL MAR - FREE HORSE RACING PICKS AND HANDICAPPING SELECTIONS FOR THURSDAY

REMEMBER - 1st time starters cannot be rated with my system. They must be considered. I will list the 1st timers in the order I believe they will finish.

ALWAYS REMEMBER - The 5 point difference between horses rule - Any horses that are rated within 5 points of each other has a good chance of beating each other on any given day. You should also consider a horse who is dropping or moving up in class. If drop is large enough he may be very competitive with the horses at this level. The same is true with a horse moving up in class. If the jump in class is too much he may have a difficult time being competitive with these horses.



NOTE: NO FREEPICKS OR HANDICAPPING SELECTIONS TODAY. PICKS AND SELECTIONS WILL BE BACK UP FRIDAY.

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Wednesday, August 13, 2014

 

DEL MAR - FREE HORSE RACING PICKS AND HANDICAPPING SELECTIONS FOR WEDNESDAY

REMEMBER - 1st time starters cannot be rated with my system. They must be considered. I will list the 1st timers in the order I believe they will finish.

ALWAYS REMEMBER - The 5 point difference between horses rule - Any horses that are rated within 5 points of each other has a good chance of beating each other on any given day. You should also consider a horse who is dropping or moving up in class. If drop is large enough he may be very competitive with the horses at this level. The same is true with a horse moving up in class. If the jump in class is too much he may have a difficult time being competitive with these horses.







THE PICK SIX CARRYOVER FOR TODAY IS $171,914.

RACE 1
1-ONTOLOGY 83.8
7-LOCAL ONE THIRTY 73.1
6-UPTOWN BIG BROWN 63.8
3-PAPA'S PAISLEY 61.6
4-PRINCE OF PARIS 59.6

RACE 2
7-SUSAN B GOOD 74.9
6-THREE BLONDES 71.4
3-LETHAL STORY 59.6
5-CEE'S TIZZY BELLE 59.0
2-TANGELO 58.8

RACE 3
6-HURRICANE LAKE 89.4
3-LITTLE JERRY 86.9
4-HOG'S HOLLOW 86.3
1-JOMELO 83.2
5-GRANDSTAND 82.0

RACE 4
5-PERFECT SET 82.0
2-NO BARNEYS 79.3
3-GOYAN 77.6
10-JUAN'S CORAZONSITO 69.2
7-BRAZILIAN COURT 68.6

RACE 5 (all 2 yo. going 1 mile)
8-MAJESTIC PRESENCE 64.2 (brushed gate)
9-MIZ PENELOPE 51.0
3-PURE 49.5 (3 wide)
4-REDSHIRT 46.6 (off slow)
10-AWESOME DIAMOND 45.6 (off slow)

1st time starters - 6 (in U.S.A. - fgn.)

RACE 6
9-BENBA 90.0
2-LAW DOG 88.1
6-CAT MEETING 82.6
11-LUCKBOX SAM 82.2
1-SMOGCUTTER 79.6

RACE 7
4-WINE POLICE 89.4
5-CARACORTADO 89.0
2-MERIT MAN 85.6
1-REMIND MEE 83.8
3-MR. SEXY 80.1

RACE 8
4-TROY STORY 71.2
3-WATCH IT BUSTER 67.0
1-STEPPINGOOD 66.4
5-APERFECTDAYTOFLY 64.3
10-ITSGETTINHOTINHERE 59.7

1st time starters - 7, 9

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