Thursday, November 24, 2016

 

Major Notice from TIMS WHIMS



AFTER 11 YEARS OF POSTING MY BLOG ON SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA HORSE RACING, I HAVE DECIDED THAT I WILL NO LONGER BE POSTING ON A DAILY BASIS.

This was a very hard decision for me to make. I started posting my picks and selections in August of 2005 on the internet. It has always been free to the readers and I tried to keep it advertising free after a couple of years. My main goal was to help new players and to draw them into racing sport.

I have watched the decline of horse racing over the years and it is very sad to see. The quality of the horses is no longer there. The greed of the tracks in exotic betting has taken from the betting pools. Major races are moved so that they will not be in the pick six races. The major job is to "get a carryover" as that is where the tracks make the best and largest amount of money.

The win, place, and show pools have been depleted by various exotic pools. The smaller player is unable to bet the amount necessary in order to have a chance at winning.

When I watch on a daily basis and I see what some of the Jockey's are doing it is a disgrace to the sport. Pulling horses back, swinging very wide on the turns, taking a front runner to the back and the trying to make him close at the end. Taking a closer and pushing him to run out front for the race. The worst of all is when they are not going to be 1st or second they don't "ride the horse out". This hurts the players who bet a trifecta, super's, etc.

Entering horses just to "fill" races is now a regular event and often a race is used as a "prep" race with the betting public not knowing that there is no intention to try a win the race.

The stewards make more and more interesting calls on the races and seem to miss the obvious infractions that occur on a regular basis. They need to get rid of "did it cause him a position" rule. An infraction is all they should be looking for in the races. We need to get rid of the discretionary decision they are able to make. I HAVE WATCHED THIS DURING MY 59 YEARS OF RACE BETTING AND IT IS NOW AT IT'S WORST.

I WANT TO THANK MY WIFE WHO HAS HELPED ME EVERY DAY THAT I POSTED WITH THE PAPER WORK AND INFORMATION GATHERING AND GOING WITH ME TO WATCH THE RACES AT THE CASINOS OR TRACK. I WOULD NOT HAVE BEEN ABLE TO DO IT WITHOUT HER.

I WANT TO THANK YOU, THE READERS OF TIMS WHIMS. YOUR COMMENTS HAVE BEEN APPRECIATED, I HAVE MET SEVERAL OF YOU IN PERSON
AND HAVE BEEN ABLE TO HAVE A LOT OF FUN.

I MAY POST OCCASIONALLY IN THE FUTURE BUT NOT ON A REGULAR BASIS.

I WISH YOU THE BEST OF LUCK.

TIM (and my wife ANN)


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Wednesday, November 23, 2016

 

DEL MAR - SOME INFORMATION ON MY SYSTEM

THERE IS NO RACING AT DEL MAR TODAY

Here is some information about my system for the new people.

My system does not use computer generated selections.
All selections are made with an ordinary home calculator and ink pen.

I use the assigned weight of the jockey (better horses are assigned more weight), the horses best two speed ratings of his last 3 races (how fast he ran for the conditions). I use the last three places the horse finished in his races (was he placed at the right level by the trainer).

I adjust ratings for turf to dirt and dirt to turf (most horses run faster on the turf). I also make an adjustment for the distance of the race.

I have a mathematical formula I created over a 5 year period over 40 years ago. The final number that I list after each selection has taken in all these factors.

A horse should have 3 races for the figure to be completely accurate. I do list a figure if a horse has run only 1 or 2 races but he may not repeat the effort the same way. A difference of 5 points on the top selection from the 2nd selection should be a good bet. Any horses within 5 points have a good chance of beating him to the finish.

The 5 point difference between horses rule- Any horse that is rated within 5 points of each other has a good chance of beating each other on any given day. You should also consider a horse who is dropping or moving up in class. If drop is large enough he may be very competitive with the horses at this level. The same is true with a horse moving up in class. If the jump in class is too much he may have a difficult time being competitive with these horses.

REMEMBER-1st time starters cannot be rated with my system. They must be considered. I will list the 1st timers in the order I believe they will finish. We all know the best horse does not always win.

Stumbles, clipped heels, no racing room, boxed in on the rail and most of all Jockey's dumb decisions account for most horses problems.

I hope this helps our new handicappers understand the system better and how the selections are made. Watch the point differences between the selections and then make your decision on how to bet the race.

HOW YOU BET THE PICKS IS THE KEY.

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DEL MAR - SOME QUESTIONS ANSWERED

THERE IS NO RACING AT DEL MAR TODAY

Here is some information about my system for the new people.

My system does not use computer generated selections.
All selections are made with an ordinary home calculator and ink pen.

I use the assigned weight of the jockey (better horses are assigned more weight), the horses best two speed ratings of his last 3 races (how fast he ran for the conditions). I use the last three places the horse finished in his races (was he placed at the right level by the trainer).

I adjust ratings for turf to dirt and dirt to turf (most horses run faster on the turf). I also make an adjustment for the distance of the race.

I have a mathematical formula I created over a 5 year period over 40 years ago. The final number that I list after each selection has taken in all these factors.

A horse should have 3 races for the figure to be completely accurate. I do list a figure if a horse has run only 1 or 2 races but he may not repeat the effort the same way. A difference of 5 points on the top selection from the 2nd selection should be a good bet. Any horses within 5 points have a good chance of beating him to the finish.

The 5 point difference between horses rule- Any horse that is rated within 5 points of each other has a good chance of beating each other on any given day. You should also consider a horse who is dropping or moving up in class. If drop is large enough he may be very competitive with the horses at this level. The same is true with a horse moving up in class. If the jump in class is too much he may have a difficult time being competitive with these horses.

REMEMBER-1st time starters cannot be rated with my system. They must be considered. I will list the 1st timers in the order I believe they will finish. We all know the best horse does not always win.

Stumbles, clipped heels, no racing room, boxed in on the rail and most of all Jockey's dumb decisions account for most horses problems.

I hope this helps our new handicappers understand the system better and how the selections are made. Watch the point differences between the selections and then make your decision on how to bet the race.

HOW YOU BET THE PICKS IS THE KEY.

I wish you the most important factor of all - GOOD LUCK

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Sunday, November 20, 2016

 

DEL MAR - FREE HORSE RACING PICKS AND HANDICAPPING SELECTION FOR SUNDAY

REMEMBER - 1st time starters cannot be rated with my system. They must be considered. I will list the 1st timers in the order I believe they will finish.

ALWAYS REMEMBER - The 5 point difference between horses rule - Any horses that are rated within 5 points of each other has a good chance of beating each other on any given day. You should also consider a horse who is dropping or moving up in class. If drop is large enough he may be very competitive with the horses at this level. The same is true with a horse moving up in class. If the jump in class is too much he may have a difficult time being competitive with these horses.



NOTE: NO PICKS OR SELECTIONS FOR TODAY.

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Saturday, November 19, 2016

 

DEL MAR - FREE HORSE RACING PICKS AND HANDICAPPING SELECTIONS FOR SATURDAY

REMEMBER - 1st time starters cannot be rated with my system. They must be considered. I will list the 1st timers in the order I believe they will finish.

ALWAYS REMEMBER - The 5 point difference between horses rule - Any horses that are rated within 5 points of each other has a good chance of beating each other on any given day. You should also consider a horse who is dropping or moving up in class. If drop is large enough he may be very competitive with the horses at this level. The same is true with a horse moving up in class. If the jump in class is too much he may have a difficult time being competitive with these horses.




THE PICK SIX CARRYOVER FOR TODAY IS $33,871.

RACE 1
10-EL SUPER 86.9
2-TAIMA THE HAWK 79.4
1-MELVILLE 78.4
6-BLACK TIE 'N TAILS 78.1
11-RIVER ECHO 77.8

RACE 2
3-FINALLYGOTABENTLEY 85.0
5-SWISS CHEESE 78.4
8-SENATOR BOB 76.6
9-BROTHER SOLDIER 69.2
10-CHANGING KARMA 68.1

RACE 3 (all 2 yo. going 6 1/2 f.)
3-LAW ABIDIN CITIZEN 72.6
1-STONE HANDS 62.7
2-BLAME JOE 60.6
6-BIG HIT 58.0
7-VEGAS ITCH 46.4

1st time starters - 5, 8

RACE 4 (all 2 yo. going 1 mile on turf)
1-SERGIO 69.8
10-MONSTER MAN 65.4
11-CEDAR RAPIDS 63.2
5-SWINGING STAR 61.6
6-ODYSSEY EXPLORER 61.6

RACE 5 (all 2 yo. going 7f.)
3-MASTERY 101.1
5-CALIFORNIA DIAMOND 88.8
4-OOPPER WALLAH 76.0
2-BERNIN SENSATION 75.4
1-ANN ARBOR EDDIE 65.9 (3 wide)

RACE 6
3-REFLECTED STAR 99.1
6-WILLING TO TRAVEL 96.5
11-TERRYS TOM CAT 95.2
5-FRITZ JOHANSEN 92.6
7-LIAM THE CHARMER 91.3

1st time starters - 9 (in the U.S.A.-fgn.)

RACE 7 (all 2 yo. going 6 1/2 f.)
2-HONOR AND COURAGE 64.8
4-LOOKIN AT MOSSY 61.6
1-A. P. ZONA 56.5
7-GENTRIFIED 54.0
5-NIGHT'S WATCH 46.7
6-THE PARTY FACTOR 41.6 (5 wide)

1st time starters - 9, 8, 3

RACE 8
7-ITSINTHEPOST 109.3
9-PERFECTLY MAJESTIC 103.8
8-WANSTEAD GARDENS 102.5
4-LITTLE CURLIN 99.8
1-PLAY HARD TO GET 99.1

RACE 9
4-MOTUTAPU 56.0 (off Oct. 15)
5-WARREN'S HONEY BEE 50.2
3-TURF CLUB QUEEN 40.7
12-MADERA JUBILEE 36.2
11-CECILE'S DIAMOND 34.6
10-MISS NAPPER TANDY 34.2

1st time starters - 13, 6

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Friday, November 18, 2016

 

DEL MAR - FREE HORSE RACING PICKS AND HANDICAPPING SELECTIONS FOR FRIDAY

REMEMBER - 1st time starters cannot be rated with my system. They must be considered. I will list the 1st timers in the order I believe they will finish.

ALWAYS REMEMBER - The 5 point difference between horses rule - Any horses that are rated within 5 points of each other has a good chance of beating each other on any given day. You should also consider a horse who is dropping or moving up in class. If drop is large enough he may be very competitive with the horses at this level. The same is true with a horse moving up in class. If the jump in class is too much he may have a difficult time being competitive with these horses.


RACE 1
2-YAVRIG 60.6
1-SANTA NELLA 53.5
7-SHE'S A TEN 47.8
5-NANYBELLE 42.8
6-PRINCESS YIZNOW 38.8

RACE 2
5-CHICAGO ANGEL 77.2
7-SIDEPOCKET RUN 67.0
3-FRANDONTJUDGE 64.8
2-STAUD'S SWISH 60.6
6-PAPASLILPRINCESS 56.6

RACE 3
2-SOUTHERN DRAWL 69.2
1-CORRELATION 65.4
4-SHEHASTHERITESTUFF 63.2
6-MY AUNT TILLIE 62.7
5-HAUTE STYLE 61.1

RACE 4
6-NEXTDOORNEIGHBOR 86.3
1-ACCELERANT 83.2
8-SUCCESS RATE 76.0
3-TEMPLAR 74.9
7-LIMITED RESPONSE 71.4
5-ATASCADERAN 71.4

RACE 5 (all 2 yo. going 5 1/2 f.)
13-BOLD PROPHET 63.2
4-MARCHTOTHEMUSIC 62.7
7-INVASION LOOMING 48.3
10-THIRTY PEPPERONIS 44.6
3-CALLE KINGPIN 30.0

1st time starters - 2, 9, 14, 1, 8. 6, 11

RACE 6
4-JIMMY BOUNCER 99.1
5-BOTTLE ROCKET 98.4
6-SECRETO PRIMERO 94.5
3-ERIC THE TROJAN 93.9
1-HORSE GREEDY 88.8

RACE 7 (all 2 yo. going 7f.)
4-PRINCESS KAREN 78.4
3-FACT OF LIFE 70.3
1-LAKE TIME 68.6
2-AUNTJENN 64.8
6-ABEL TASMAN 60.6
5-CARRIE 59.0

RACE 8
10-ROYAL SEEKER 73.6
5-JET SKI 65.6
11-AMODEI 62.0
1-DR. TROUTMAN 53.5
4-SIX POINT RACK 49.7
14-BURNT COGNAC 46.0

1st time starters - 13

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Thursday, November 17, 2016

 

DEL MAR - FREE HORSE RACING PICKS AND HANDICAPPING SELECTIONS FOR THURSDAY

REMEMBER - 1st time starters cannot be rated with my system. They must be considered. I will list the 1st timers in the order I believe they will finish.

ALWAYS REMEMBER - The 5 point difference between horses rule - Any horses that are rated within 5 points of each other has a good chance of beating each other on any given day. You should also consider a horse who is dropping or moving up in class. If drop is large enough he may be very competitive with the horses at this level. The same is true with a horse moving up in class. If the jump in class is too much he may have a difficult time being competitive with these horses.

RACE 1
2-LATE 'N LEFT 64.3
7-ROCKY'S RAINBOW 61.6
1-TINDERETTE 60.6
3-SOONER TIME 57.5
4-AMAZING LADY 56.5

RACE 2
4-BUTTERCUP GOLD 71.4
6-QUINNETTE 68.6
1-HAL'S BUDDY 67.5
7-WARRENSDOLLARSIGNS 67.5
2-INDIVIDUAL DESIGN 60.6

RACE 3
8-EAGLE SCREAMS 88.1
5-OVER PAR 82.6
7-TEMPLE KEYS 81.4
2-TRIBAL TRIBUTE 81.4
1-PLAIN WRAP 74.2

RACE 4
9-BIG BAD JON 66.4
7-ADIR 61.1
3-WILD MISCHIEF 57.0
5-SOLAR ZONE 56.6
1-MIMIS BIG BOY 55.5

RACE 5 (all 2 yo. going 1 mile on turf)
8-PRINCESS ROI 67.5
3-MY PI ROMANCER 63.2
9-ADLER 56.5
7-TIZ SEEKING A WIN 47.8
10-STARR OF QUALITY 46.4

1st time starters - 4, 1

RACE 6
8-PICO CHICK 73.1
3-GYPSY'S RULE 72.0
4-KRISTIE'S HEART 69.8
2-MISS BIG STUFF 69.2
7-STAR OF MUNSTER 68.1
1-PASSIONATE EMOTION 68.1

RACE 7
6-LUCY DE 78.4
5-JENNYWAY U WANT IT 76.6
3-LOVEINTHESHADOWS 76.6
9-MAI TAI 76.0
1-ALMOST REALITY 69.8
2-SEA SMOKE 69.2

RACE 8 (all 2 yo. going 5 1/2 f.)
4-GIO'S LADY 50.5
8-PATTIN FOR A DANCE 50.2
1-ESKENFORANDREYA 39.9
5-PRINCESS MARIE 37.4
11-PRINCESS NICOLE 33.4

1st time starters - 10, 12, 6

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Wednesday, November 16, 2016

 

DEL MAR - SOME INFORMATION ON MY SYSTEM

THERE IS NO RACING AT DEL MAR TODAY

Here is some information about my system for the new people.

My system does not use computer generated selections.
All selections are made with an ordinary home calculator and ink pen.

I use the assigned weight of the jockey (better horses are assigned more weight), the horses best two speed ratings of his last 3 races (how fast he ran for the conditions). I use the last three places the horse finished in his races (was he placed at the right level by the trainer).

I adjust ratings for turf to dirt and dirt to turf (most horses run faster on the turf). I also make an adjustment for the distance of the race.

I have a mathematical formula I created over a 5 year period over 40 years ago. The final number that I list after each selection has taken in all these factors.

A horse should have 3 races for the figure to be completely accurate. I do list a figure if a horse has run only 1 or 2 races but he may not repeat the effort the same way. A difference of 5 points on the top selection from the 2nd selection should be a good bet. Any horses within 5 points have a good chance of beating him to the finish.

The 5 point difference between horses rule- Any horse that is rated within 5 points of each other has a good chance of beating each other on any given day. You should also consider a horse who is dropping or moving up in class. If drop is large enough he may be very competitive with the horses at this level. The same is true with a horse moving up in class. If the jump in class is too much he may have a difficult time being competitive with these horses.

REMEMBER-1st time starters cannot be rated with my system. They must be considered. I will list the 1st timers in the order I believe they will finish. We all know the best horse does not always win.

Stumbles, clipped heels, no racing room, boxed in on the rail and most of all Jockey's dumb decisions account for most horses problems.

I hope this helps our new handicappers understand the system better and how the selections are made. Watch the point differences between the selections and then make your decision on how to bet the race.

HOW YOU BET THE PICKS IS THE KEY.

I wish you the most important factor of all - GOOD LUCK

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DEL MAR - SOME QUESTIONS ANSWERED

THERE IS NO RACING AT DEL MAR TODAY.

Some questions answered-

I have been asked to make a pick six selection for the races. A pick six can be made by using my selections and 1st timers that are listed. I list the 1st timers in the order I believe they will finish.

Why do I post 5 horses for each race?
I post 5 horses with their ratings for each race as my figures are made and usually posted before scratches. If one is scratched you would still have 4 selections for superfectas. I also like to play superfectas and trifectas with my system and to box the different horses or key the top horses to the others.

Recap payouts -
I no longer list the payouts on the minimum bet such as a $1 trifecta, $2 Quinella, $1 Exacta, $1 Superfecta, etc. as given by the track results. This allows me to post the next days picks and selections earlier. After 3 years of listing the results my record speaks for itself (see archives).

I have a small advantage betting here in Reno on Quinellas at some of the race books as they offer a "house Q"- this is 1/2 the win price times the place horses price. They pay either the track payout or the "house Q" payout and I receive the highest of the two. When I show a top horse "keyed" in the payouts he could also have been "boxed" with the picks in your betting.

Are my listed horses in the order that they should be bet?
NO - I have pointed out the 5 point difference rule many many times ( see yesterday's post). Also the 1st time starters cannot be rated under my system and they must always be considered. I do try to list the 1st time starters in the order I believe they will finish. If there are a couple of high rated horses and then a gap between the next horse's figure I would usually include the 1st timer. If his works are very good I would also include him. If my rated horses numbers are below 60 points I would also include the first timer in my bets.

Do I make money all the time? I make money over a longer period of time but I have streaks just like every bettor does. I have a very good day for me with the trifectas. The next racing day???? I post my picks with the ratings. HOW YOU BET THE PICKS IS THE KEY.

My top horse wins a lot but many of the payouts are small. If the 5 point rule is there I may bet the 2nd or 3rd horse to win. I only make win bets (no place or show) unless the odds are very high on my selection, then I may make a place bet. I never make a show bet to make money. I like to key my horses that stand out with their ratings and or box 3 or 4 horses for my trifectas and superfectas. If I make a quinella bet I usually box three horses unless I have a standout to key and then I key that horse to three others.

Horses with the same rating number-
I list the horse that I believe has the best chance of beating the other horse with the same figure first. This is for listing purposes only. Horses within a few tenths of a point are considered "tied" for betting purposes.

Program number does not match horse's name-
This has happened 15 times that I know of in over 3,668 posts on my blog. If it occurs use the program number and the rating for that horse. I enter the program numbers with the ratings first and then the horses name. I do not ever remember having the program number wrong for the selection I wanted with the horse's rating.

I hope this has answered some of the questions that you have about my system. I post information on the system on non racing days at the Southern Calif. tracks. You can go back on my posts on those days for more information.

The best handicapping tool you can have?
Good Luck

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Sunday, November 13, 2016

 

DEL MAR - FREE HORSE RACING PICKS AND AND HANDICAPPING SELECTIONS FOR SUNDAY

REMEMBER - 1st time starters cannot be rated with my system. They must be considered. I will list the 1st timers in the order I believe they will finish.

ALWAYS REMEMBER - The 5 point difference between horses rule - Any horses that are rated within 5 points of each other has a good chance of beating each other on any given day. You should also consider a horse who is dropping or moving up in class. If drop is large enough he may be very competitive with the horses at this level. The same is true with a horse moving up in class. If the jump in class is too much he may have a difficult time being competitive with these horses.



THE PICK SIX CARRYOVER FOR TODAY IS $203,127.

RACE 1
1-MY PRINCE HARRY 87.5
2-WILLISTON DUDE 86.3
3-RIVER'S EDGE 77.2
7-SMUGGLER UNION 75.4
4-ELEGANT STREET 70.3

RACE 2
2-PLASTERED 85.8
5-OPTIMISM AND HOPE 73.1
8-DAME STREET 71.4
1-BROOKES ALL MINE 71.4
7-SPACE CADET 65.6

RACE 3 (all 2 yo. going 6f.)
3-IRON CURTAIN 59.0
7-WOODFOX 49.2
2-LOUD STALKER 37.4 (steadied)
5-P TOWN TITAN 27.9 (3 wide)

1st time starters - 1, 4, 8, 6

RACE 4
3-LOYALIST 76.0
11-CAUSE I'M BAD 71.4
7-REDNECK CRAZY 70.3
2-SEATTLE BOOM 69.2
5-IT'S JUST BOB 67.0

RACE 5
11-RANGI 97.8
9-ZURI CHOP 97.1
6-SUDDEN SAM 97.1
1-CHIPS ALL IN 96.5
8-WILDFIRE KID 95.2

RACE 6
7-LEMON ORCHID 64.3
6-TO B. AVA 56.5
9-BELLA SIERRA 55.0
11-TIZ MAKIN MEMORIES 48.3
8-IRISH DEVIL 39.4

1st time starters - 2, 5, 4, 1, 3

RACE 7
7-UNTOUCHABLE U 89.4
9-ZIP N BAYOU 86.3
1-SHAZARA 86.3
8-DEL MAR ANN 85.6
2-MRS. NORRIS 84.4
4-LYNNE'S LEGACY 83.2

RACE 8
2-ENOLA GRAY 91.9
1-BARBARA BEATRICE 90.7
3-MY FIONA 87.5
6-HARLINGTON'S ROSE 81.4
5-CHAO CHOM 75.4

RACE 9 (all 2 yo. going 1 1/16 miles on turf)
4-CAMINO DE ESTRELLA 74.2
8-KONA DREAMS 73.1
6-KIMBEAR 65.9
2-COLONEL SAMSEN 64.3
14-BIG HIT 63.0
3-ICE KAT 62.2 (3 wide)

1st time starters - 5

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